Foresight Needs a Budget Decision It Can Change

North African officials have called for stronger foresight. Its practical value depends on which public decisions remain open to a different future.

Event / source date: ECA release6November describes3–5November2026session and recommendations onforesight/fiscalframeworks/regionalcooperation. · Published 9 NOVEMBER 2026

A recommendation is not an operating capability

The Economic Commission for Africa reported on 6 November that its North Africa intergovernmental committee had concluded a session held from 3 to 5 November. Recommendations included strategic foresight, adaptable fiscal frameworks and stronger regional cooperation. Those are reported recommendations, not evidence that governments have already changed spending or achieved resilience.

The question for this analysis is where a scenario enters a real public decision. A government can discuss several possible futures while preparing a budget that assumes only one. The intellectual exercise becomes operational when an alternative future can alter a choice still available to the institution. Foresight should therefore identify its decision point before seeking a more impressive description of uncertainty.

Start with a choice that remains open

Consider a hypothetical authority choosing between expanding one central facility and improving several smaller facilities. Different assumptions about demand, access and interruption could make the alternatives perform differently. A useful scenario exercise would make those relationships explicit before a final commitment removes the choice.

The exercise should not begin by asking participants to predict which future will win. It should ask which decision is being examined, when it must be taken and what would make the alternatives preferable. That provides a practical test of relevance. A scenario that changes no available decision may still improve understanding, but it should not be described as having changed the institution’s preparedness merely because it was discussed.

Keep a scenario separate from a forecast

A scenario can explore a condition without assigning it a probability or claiming it will occur. A forecast makes another kind of proposition and needs evidence appropriate to that proposition. Mixing the two can make a planning assumption appear to carry an authority nobody actually established.

In the hypothetical facilities decision, an exercise might examine a prolonged interruption to a key route. This would not establish that the interruption is expected. It would reveal how the options behave under that condition. The resulting public account should explain why the condition was useful to examine, what it showed about the decision and which uncertainties remain beyond the exercise. Precision about purpose improves the discussion.

Define the trigger before celebrating flexibility

A budget can reserve an option while leaving nobody responsible for using it. If an alternative action becomes relevant, who notices the change, what evidence is required and which authority can release the resources? Flexibility needs those arrangements if it is to mean more than a reassuring adjective.

A hypothetical contingency could require a review when a service measure crosses a defined threshold. The threshold should be justified and periodically checked, not selected merely because it produces an attractive dashboard. The response may require judgment rather than an automatic transfer. What matters is that the institution can explain the path from changed conditions to a decision, including who remains answerable for choosing not to act.

Consider the cost of keeping an option available

An unused option can still require expenditure, staff time or an agreement with another provider. Those obligations belong in the assessment. A plan should not compare the visible cost of one committed asset with an apparently free alternative whose maintenance requirements have simply been left outside the calculation.

Equally, paying to retain an option does not establish that the option remains usable. An agreement can expire or a provider can change capacity. The review should distinguish money spent preserving a possibility from evidence that the possibility can actually be exercised. That distinction helps a budget discussion remain connected to a capability rather than a line whose existence has become its own justification.

Give the exercise a route back to the budget

The people conducting a foresight exercise may not control the relevant spending decision. Their report should therefore identify the institution receiving the findings, the choice requiring attention and the response expected. Otherwise, the exercise can end with recommendations that nobody was obliged to consider at the useful moment.

A proportionate response record could state which assumption changed, which option was retained and why a proposed adjustment was rejected. Rejection is not necessarily failure. The reasoning may establish that another obligation is more important. The essential point is that the connection becomes inspectable. Participation in a workshop and influence over a budget are different achievements, and public reporting should be able to distinguish them.

The review should also ask which decision is genuinely reversible. Deferring a commitment may preserve an option, but only until a deadline, a supplier agreement or a physical condition closes it. A scenario record can identify that last useful moment. This prevents flexibility being discussed as though the same alternatives will remain available indefinitely. A hypothetical authority may have time to compare several sites today and only one workable site later. The cost of waiting therefore belongs beside the cost of committing. Neither should be assumed to be zero merely because the institution has not yet spent the money.

Judge foresight through the commitment it improves

The ECA recommendations provide a timely invitation to strengthen anticipation. Their implementation would need evidence beyond the meeting account. The test proposed here is whether an institution can name a consequential commitment that became more robust because alternatives were examined while change remained possible.

That may mean retaining an option, adjusting a timetable or deciding that a seemingly flexible proposal depends on an assumption it cannot sustain. None requires claiming to know the future. It requires disciplined attention to the choices the institution still owns. Foresight earns its place when it changes the relationship between uncertainty and commitment, rather than simply adding another account of uncertainty beside a budget already treated as inevitable.

Gabriel Nicolaev — CyGuru

Sources & further reading

ECA: North African countries call for stronger foresight ↗

Editorial photograph for illustration.

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